Mathematical modelling of the evolution dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Burkina Faso.
- STEAM-H, Sci. Technol. Eng. Agric. Math. Health , 2021 (2021) : 79-95
Résumé
In this paper, we develop a compartmental model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Burkina Faso by taking into account the compartments of hospitalized, severely hospitalized patients and dead persons. The model exhibits the traditional threshold behavior. We prove that when the basic reproduction number is less than one, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. We use real data from Burkina Faso National Health Commission against COVID-19 to predict the dynamic of the disease and also the cumulative number of reported cases. We use public policies in our model in order to reduce the contact rate, and thereby to show how the reduction of daily reported infectious cases evolves with a view to assisting decision makers for a rapid treatment of the reported cases.
Mots-clés
COVID-19; statistics; data; reported and unreported cases; mathematical model; reproduction number; stability; public policies; basic reproduction number; contact function; prediction